Free download from parc april 22, 2009 matt artz analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. To explore the method further, download the full paper, applying the analysis of competing hypotheses to the cyber domain attributionrelated issues. Duplicate title to the analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis retired, jisc publications router manage acknowledge the intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. Analysis of competing hypotheses discover your solutions llc.
When applying the methods detailed in this book to real studies, we will often have to consider a suite of statistical models representing competing hypotheses about the system or population and identify the better models from among them. The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis. Analysis of competing hypotheses definition by babylons free. You will also find instructions and tutorials for the ach software at the pherson associates, llc web site. Analysis by competing hypothesis linkedin slideshare. An analysis of competing hypotheses digital shadows. Competing hypothesis an overview sciencedirect topics. Software freeware law enforcement intelligence analysis. Digital shadows photon research team recently released a comprehensive examination of the analysis of competing hypothesis ach method, in a full paper. An analytic technique created at the cia, ach helps you analyze complex situations with multiple hypotheses and countless pieces of evidence. In particular, the analysis phase involves the management of hypotheses and the application of prior knowledge. Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic. This distinction in and of itself is cause enough to consider whether human everyday reasoning is robust and reliable enough for use in these larger contexts. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is.
Striving for analytical rigor in intelligence analysis is a given, but achieving it can be a challenge. It provides a tableoriented workspace for performing the analysis of competing hypotheses ach method heuer, 1999. One wellknown structured and facilitated approach in the intelligence community for comparing hypotheses is analysis of competing hypotheses ach. This ensures that alternative hypotheses receive equal treatment and a fair shake. Dick heuers ideas on how to improve analysis focus on helping.
Analysis of competing hypotheses analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a multivariable, qualitative technique that aids judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach initially, the platform will support the analysis of competing hypotheses ach framework. To complete the ach steps of fusion and conclusion. People often ask me how i went from working for the government to fashion. It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence. The parc page for downloading the ach system can be reached on the link below. What is the abbreviation for analysis of competing hypotheses.
This ensures that alternative hypotheses receive equal. It is an analytic process that identifies a complete set of alternative hypotheses, systematically evaluates data that is consistent and inconsistent with each hypothesis, and rejects hypotheses that contain too much inconsistent data. The intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. As we have included ach in our geospatial analytic method, it takes the geospatial analyst through a process to make wellreasoned, analytical judgments using both nongeospatial and geospatial information. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach promises a relatively objective and tractable methodology for ranking the plausibility of competing hypotheses.
It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis so difficult to achieve. Analysis starts with a full set of alternative possibilities, rather than with a most likely alternative for which the analyst seeks confirmation. Critical epistemology for analysis of competing hypotheses. Analysis of competing hypotheses military wiki fandom. Hines, in occupancy estimation and modeling second edition, 2018. The analysis of competing hypothesis and the cyber domain. We examined the use of the analysis of competing hypotheses acha technique designed to reduce confirmation bias. Oct 22, 2015 download ach learn how to think when it comes to complex problems and use this program to conduct the analysis of competing hypotheses together with some more tools. Analysis has indicated that wannacry samples from february 2017 contained a small section of code identical to those used in previous lazarus campaigns. Analysis by competing hypotheses a business tool from the psychology of intelligence analysis by richards j. Analysis of competing hypotheses for digital analytics. A comparable effort has to be devoted to the science of analysis.
Analysis of competing hypotheses wikipedia republished. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. Analysis of competing hypotheses breaks a complex problem down into its. While the level of structured facilitation can vary e. Analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a simple model for how to think about and fuse geospatial information into analytic problems.
Free computer program for analyzing multiple hypotheses. Draft june 27, 2005 3 broad caveats for the method ach 1. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach 7 was developed to provide a framework for assisted reasoning that would help overcome these limitations. And to be honest i dont work in fashion i work in analytics for a fashion company. Structuring and analyzing competing hypotheses with bayesian. In step 3, you worked across the matrix, focusing on a single item of evidence or argument and examining against each hypotheses. Ultimately, there are multiple analysis tools available to the intelligence community, including opportunity analysis, linchpin analysis, ach, analogy, et cetera. Designed for strategic and tactical intelligence analysis national.
The analysis of competing hypotheses ach provides an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem. Detecting deception by analysis of competing hypotheses. The analysis of competing hypothesesin intelligence analysis. The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence. Pdf the analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis. Analysis of competing hypotheses hurricane capital. The former provides a methodology for overcoming intelligence biases while the latter outlines how mental models and natural biases impede clear thinking and analysis. The theory of analysis of competing hypotheses over the years, intelligence community practitioners have developed or adapted a range of simple or more complicated structured analytic techniques sats to aid in conducting intelligence analysis. Doc analysis of competing hypotheses ach and intelligence. Post your analysis to the lesson 7 discussion forum. A little something used by intelligence analysts the world over.
Download ach learn how to think when it comes to complex. Ach abbreviation stands for analysis of competing hypotheses. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach the iconic tech. This note provides a technical description of the program, focusing on the scoring.
Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence. Download ach learn how to think when it comes to complex problems and use this program to conduct the analysis of competing hypotheses together with some more tools. This effort has to start with a clear understanding of the inherent strengths and weaknesses of the primary analytic mechanismthe human mindand the way it processes information. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach is said to an unbiased methodology for. Analysis of competing hypotheses definition by babylons. Nov 01, 2016 disprove your hypotheses you can have all the evidence in the world to back one hypothesis but if there is one piece of evidence that disproves it you can reject it. However, little evidence exists of how techniques are applied and whether they are effective. Unlike explanationism, it appeals to minimally subjective judgments about relations between hypotheses and evidence. The ach framework is a good candidate for public discourse because. Analysis starts with a brainstorming session to identify a full set of alternative hypotheses, rather than with a most likely alternative for which the analyst seeks confirmation. At the time of writing, however, we assessed there to be insufficient evidence to corroborate this claim of attribution to this group, and alternative hypotheses should be considered. Apr 30, 20 one wellknown structured and facilitated approach in the intelligence community for comparing hypotheses is analysis of competing hypotheses ach.
Effective application of new and classic methods, second edition book. Ach selection from business and competitive analysis. The program comes with multiple nice features and tools that you can check out, as well as some samples and. Encourages systematic analysis of multiple competing hypotheses. Theory and practice in teaching unformatted document text. Extending heuers analysis of competing hypotheses method. The following elements distinguish analysis of competing hypotheses from conventional intuitive analysis.
Alternative analysis, and in particular ach, is seen as so important that the cias sherman kent school for intelligence analysis runs a monthly alternative analysis workshop and has introduced an. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach is said to an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. What i want to share with the digital analytics community is continue reading analysis of competing hypotheses for digital analytics. Ach is grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. The analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a method to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Jul 07, 2008 analysis of competing hypotheses, sometimes abbreviated ach, is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions.
Analysis of competing hypotheses an analytical process by former cia analyst richards j heuer, jr. Applying the analysis of competing hypotheses to the cyber domain. Pdf analysis of competing hypothesis for investigating lone wolf. The software downloadable here takes an analyst through a process for making a wellreasoned, analytical judgment. Jan 20, 2011 a little something used by intelligence analysts the world over. It is designed to help analysts avoid confirmation bias in several respects, namely, by explicitly requiring them to a consider alternative hypotheses. Extending heuers analysis of competing hypotheses method to. Sensitivity analysis analyse how sensitive your conclusion is to a few critical items of evidence. Ach analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. A dot gov website, they provide eight high level steps. You can see what it looks like below and make a copy. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a free computer program used to evaluate multiple hypotheses.
A notoriously difficult element of cyberthreat intelligence, attribution is made even more complicated by the ambiguity of evidence associated with the discipline and the potential confusion of. Cem cem brainstorming or some kind of focus group type analysis. Structuring and analyzing competing hypotheses with. Its simplicity creates both strengths and weaknesses. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach, archived from the original on 20080318, retrieved 200803. Disprove your hypotheses you can have all the evidence in the world to back one hypothesis but if there is one piece of evidence that disproves it you can reject it. Intelligence organizations promote the use of structured methods such as analysis of competing hypotheses ach to improve judgment accuracy and analytic rigor, but these methods have received. The analysis of competing hypotheses, with its own unique pros and cons, is another. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a multivariable, qualitative technique that aids judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Analysis of competing hypotheses, sometimes abbreviated ach, is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions.
The open source analysis of competing hypotheses project. Analysis of competing hypotheses breaks a complex problem down into its component parts. Detecting deception by analysis of competing hypothesis frank j. Three key elements distinguish analysis of competing hypotheses from conventional intuitive analysis. Analysis of competing hypothesis for investigating. May 18, 2017 analysis has indicated that wannacry samples from february 2017 contained a small section of code identical to those used in previous lazarus campaigns. Many of these, like brain storming, key assumptions checks, what if, red teams, or devils advocacy are widely used. Intelligence organizations promote the use of structured methods such as analysis of competing hypotheses ach to improve judgment accuracy and.
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